About
About Probable
Probable is a forecasting media brand for everyday people. Every weekday we publish a five-minute read that answers a single question about what is likely to happen next in politics, the economy, or the world. The number you see at the top of each briefing — “Probable’s read: 72 percent” — is our own forecast, not anyone else’s.
We arrive at that number by weighing four classes of evidence: prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, professional analysts like Wall Street research desks and the Federal Reserve, public opinion polls and consumer-sentiment surveys, and official data from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Treasury. None of the four is sufficient on its own. The synthesis is the editorial product.
We do not tell you what to think. We tell you what the evidence says is most likely, and we show our work so you can decide for yourself.
What you can expect from us
The voice is calm and editorial. The headlines do not shout. The paragraphs are short. Every probability we cite is attributed to a named source. Every claim is grounded in cited evidence.
We are upfront that artificial intelligence does most of the drafting, with a human review before each piece goes live. Errors are part of that deal, and our scoreboard tracks them publicly so you can see when we get a forecast right and when we miss.
We do not give financial advice, we do not endorse candidates, and we do not editorialize about whether outcomes are good or bad. Our methodology page explains the full editorial framework in detail.
Who runs Probable
Probable is an independent media project, launched in 2026. We are not owned by a larger media company, and we are not funded by any political organization, party, or candidate. Our revenue will come from reader subscriptions, newsletter sponsorships, and affiliate partnerships, all of which we disclose openly.
If you want to support what we are building, the most useful thing you can do is subscribe. It is free, and it keeps us going.
Where to start
The fastest way to see what every Probable briefing looks like is to read today’s issue. The methodology page explains how the forecast number is produced in detail. The scoreboard is the running public record of how often we are right and how often we are wrong.
To get the daily read in your inbox, subscribe — the newsletter is free, weekday mornings, five minutes.
Questions, tips, or things we got wrong: hello@theprobablenews.com