How Probable works

Most news tells you what just happened, then leaves you to guess what it means or what comes next. Probable does the opposite: we focus on what’s likely to happen, using actual data instead of pundits’ opinions.

We don’t tell you what to think. We tell you what the evidence says is most likely, and we show our work so you can decide for yourself.

The number you see at the top of every Probable story — “Probable’s read: 72%” — is our own forecast, not anyone else’s. We arrive at it by weighing four classes of input. None of the four is sufficient on its own; the synthesis is the editorial product.

Prediction markets. When real people put real money on whether something will happen, the resulting prices are remarkably accurate forecasts — often more accurate than polls, pundits, or expert panels alone. We pull live odds from regulated markets like Kalshi (CFTC-regulated and US-legal), plus widely-used markets like Polymarket and Manifold. Markets are usually our most-cited input because they integrate everyone else’s views into one price.

Professional analysts. What Wall Street’s research desks, central bank projections, and expert panels are saying. That includes the Federal Reserve’s own Summary of Economic Projections, bank research from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, economist surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters, political analysts at the Cook Political Report, and aggregated superforecasters at the Good Judgment Project. These voices carry weight when they line up with markets and even more weight when they don’t.

Public opinion polls. Polls measure things markets can’t — what voters say, what households expect, what consumers feel. We use poll aggregators (FiveThirtyEight, Cook), well-methodology individual polls, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the New York Fed’s consumer expectations data, and political forecasting models. Polls move slower than markets but they measure different things.

Official data. When the question involves the economy, government policy, or measurable real-world events, we go to the original source: the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury, the CFTC, the SEC, the Census Bureau, the IMF, central banks abroad, and the official press releases of the agencies and officials involved. This data is public, and we link to it.

The way it comes together: we identify the day’s most-watched questions, gather what each of those four input classes says, and produce Probable’s own number with a short paragraph that shows how we weighed the inputs. We also attach a confidence level — high, medium, or low — that reflects how aligned the inputs are. When all four classes point the same way, our confidence is high. When they disagree, it’s low, and we say so.

We do not republish anyone else’s reporting or research. We summarize, we cite, and we link out to the originating source so readers can audit our reasoning.

Let’s be straightforward about this: Probable is primarily an AI-driven publication. The vast majority of our writing is generated by large language models from Anthropic, working from data and reporting we feed them. We think AI is a powerful tool for cutting through partisan noise and writing clearly about complex topics — but it also means errors are part of the deal, and we’d rather tell you that than hide it.

Here’s how it actually works:

• The AI works only from the data and reporting we provide it, never from its own memory or assumptions. The prompt explicitly forbids it from making any claim that isn’t grounded in a cited source.
• A human proofreads each piece before publication — checking for tone, clarity, and obvious red flags. We do not, and cannot, fact-check every claim, every link, or every probability against its underlying market data. That’s beyond what one person can do at the volume we publish.
• This means errors will sometimes get through. We expect this, and we plan for it. Our public correction log catches what we and our readers find later, and we keep it open and visible.

We think AI in journalism should be transparent, not hidden — which is why we’re upfront about using it instead of pretending otherwise.

We don’t give financial advice. Probable is journalism, not investment recommendations. Even when we discuss markets, we’re describing what’s likely to happen, not what you should do with your money.

We don’t claim to be 100% accurate. Forecasting is inherently uncertain. The markets we cite are usually right but sometimes wrong. The analysts we cite are sometimes wrong. The polls we cite are sometimes wrong. Our own synthesis is sometimes wrong. AI sometimes makes mistakes. When we get something wrong, we’re happy to admit it and fix it publicly on our scoreboard.

We don’t tell you what to think politically. Our approach is probabilistic and evidence-based, not partisan. If you find us leaning one way or the other on a political question, that’s our failure — please tell us so we can correct it.

We don’t promote betting. Prediction markets are our data source, not our recommendation. We are an editorial product, not a betting platform.

When we get something wrong — and we will — we’re happy to admit it and fix it publicly. We make it easy for you to see how often that happens.

Our public scoreboard tracks our actual track record: how many of our forecasts turned out right, how many turned out wrong, and what we missed. It’s automatically generated whenever a question we wrote about resolves (a market closes, an event happens, a number is released). A human reviews each entry before it posts publicly.

If you spot a mistake we haven’t caught — a fact that’s wrong, a source we’ve misrepresented, a probability we cited incorrectly — please tell us. Email corrections@theprobablenews.com or reach us through the contact link below. We respond as quickly as we can and post visible corrections on the original piece.

Probable does not have a political viewpoint, and we work hard to keep it that way. We don’t endorse candidates. We don’t editorialize about whether outcomes are good or bad. When we explain why a market is moving the way it is, we describe what traders and reporters say is happening, not what we wish was happening.

The only “side” we’re on is being right about probabilities. If our analysis tells you something you don’t want to hear — about an election, an economic outcome, a geopolitical event — that’s by design. We trust you to handle the data.

Probable does not sell your email or your reading habits. We use industry-standard email and analytics tools (Beehiiv for our newsletter, lightweight privacy-preserving analytics for the site) which keep your data secure. The full privacy policy will live at /privacy.

Probable is an independent media project, launched in 2026. We’re not owned by a larger media company. We’re not funded by any political organization, party, or candidate. Our only revenue comes from reader subscriptions, newsletter sponsorships, and affiliate partnerships, all of which we disclose openly.

If you want to support Probable, the best thing you can do is subscribe to the newsletter — it’s free, and it keeps us going.

• General questions: hello@theprobablenews.com
• Corrections and tips: corrections@theprobablenews.com
• Sponsorship inquiries: sponsor@theprobablenews.com
• Press and media: press@theprobablenews.com

Probable is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; if you choose to participate in them, you do so at your own risk and following the laws of your jurisdiction.

Probable is primarily an AI-driven publication. Our content is drafted with the assistance of large language models from Anthropic. A human proofreads each piece before publication but does not fact-check every claim against its underlying source. Errors can and do happen. When we catch them — or readers flag them — we correct them publicly on our scoreboard.